Tarnished Relationship to Ankara

​​It is conspicuous that the prospects of Turkey joining the EU are being increasingly instrumentalized in many countries of central and southeastern Europe for domestic policy reasons to justify their Euroskepticism. It has meanwhile become one of the main arguments used by populists against further EU expansion.

If populists, obsessed solely with defending "national interests," get the upper hand, they will presumably weaken openness for joint policies for EU expansion and propagate isolation of the European Union under the pretext of defending "national interests."

The growing skepticism toward European expansion in the "old" EU member states is another factor that populists and Euroskeptics in the "new" EU countries refer to in order to justify their rejection of Turkey's accession.

Volatile democratic landscape

Without dramatizing the issue one can definitely claim that such developments could seriously harm the process of European integration and its positive effects.

Trends in "new" EU member states that are skeptical of and hostile towards European integration can also have a negative backlash on the positions of the other political parties and on public opinion, especially since the democratic landscape in the "new" EU countries is far from stable.

This applies especially to attitudes toward the possible accession of Turkey to the European Union. A negative trend on this issue has been observable since May 2004. The initial indifference or even solidarity with Turkey's candidacy has gradually shifted in the "new" EU member states from central and southeastern Europe to skepticism or even outright rejection.

The most recent findings of the Eurobarometer poll in fall 2006 paint a generally dismal picture. All new EU member states showed a negative ratio, that is, adverse attitudes toward Turkey's joining the EU.

For the first time, those opposed to Turkey's accession comprise a slight majority in Poland. In Slovenia, where up to now the scales have been balanced between those advocating and opposing Turkey's candidacy, the number of opponents now exceeds the supporters by about ten percent.

In the same boat with Turkey

The only countries that express clear support for Turkey are Bulgaria and Romania, new members that joined the European Union on January 1, 2007. This might be a demonstration of solidarity with a neighboring country, as Bulgaria and Romania spent many years as EU candidates in the same boat with Turkey.

These developments in most countries of southeastern and central Europe are not likely to change in the near future. The results of the Turkish parliamentary elections have convinced neither proponents nor opponents that a breakthrough as regards Turkey's EU candidacy will be possible in the next two to four years.

For those who support Turkey's candidacy to join the EU, the AKP [Justice and Development Party] victory can be seen as a confirmation of the present course of the government in the direction of gradually adopting "acquis communautaire" [EU law], satisfying the "Copenhagen criteria," and arduous – but nevertheless progressing – accession negotiations with the European Commission.

Opponents view the election results not as a victory for the pro-European elite, but more as a maneuver by AKP Islamists, who tried to fight the Turkish military with European arguments.

Election results – a "hidden trap"?

The next few months will show whether the election results are a victory or a "hidden trap" for the process of Europeanizing Turkey. In any case, public opinion in the EU and also in Turkey is certain that the decision on Turkey joining the EU is dependent more on developments in Brussels than on those in Ankara.

An important aspect of how the new EU member states appraise Turkey's candidacy is their social identification with Europe and their ties to European civilization.

This identification plays a greater role there than in western Europe – where it is taken for granted – because in central and southeastern Europe the transition to democracy was seen as a "return to Europe" after the painful scars left by the unnatural division of the continent during the Cold War.

For ordinary citizens from Warsaw to Ljubljana, the European identity of the accession candidates was more important than all the Copenhagen criteria, and that will probably not change when they judge the next candidates for EU accession.

Public opinion in the new EU member states might be influenced more by the irreversible Europeanization of Turkish society than by the cost-benefit question, the potential paralysis of European institutions, or the security policy dimension of Turkey's accession.

Evidence in this direction might have greater impact on public opinion in the new EU member states than progress in the accession negotiations.

Emil Mintchev

© Qantara.de 2007

Emil Mintchev, Ph.D., studied economics at the University of National and World Economy in Sofia and taught at the Institute for International Relations and Foreign Policy (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences). He is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Integration Studies and has been a research assistant at the Seminar for Eastern European History at the University of Bonn since 2006.

Translated from the German by Allison Brown

Qantara.de

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